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    Title: 臺灣西南部地震動態活動模型探討
    Authors: 黃國森;HUANG, KUO-SHENG
    Contributors: 數學系應用數學研究所
    Keywords: 微分方程;臺灣西南部地區;地震活動;ordinary differential equation;south western Taiwan;earthquake activity
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2019-07-17
    Publisher: 數學系應用數學研究所
    Abstract: 地震預測一直是地球科學研究的重要目標之一,雖然目前還未有具體成績,但已經有不少分析研究成果。本文針對2003年至2016年共13年臺灣西南部地震規模2.5以上、震源深度40公里以上的地震次數資料,藉由數學模型模擬推測未來此地區的地震活動趨勢。我們選擇地震資料中地震次數來進行模型模擬,地震次數除了是我們最容易取得的地震資料外,地震次數的變化也是反應地震活動指標之一。本研究除了考慮影響地震的內部因素:地層物理結構、應力釋放的延滯現象,也考慮潮汐變化的外部效果,讓模型模擬上更符合實際地震活動現象。模擬時間尺度上分別為30天和15天時間尺度。模擬結果顯示,在30天時間尺度可以吻合大地震行為模式;在15天時間尺度可以吻合背景地震活動。
    The prediction of earthquake is an important role in seismology. Although we do not have any way to predict earthquake as far, there are many study repot about predict method of earthquake. We study the earthquake with magnitude more than 2.5 and focal depth 0 to 40 km from 2003 to 2016 in south western Taiwan. We present a mathematical model that describes temporal variations of earthquakes even predict the future of earthquake activity. The number of earthquakes is chosen to describe the earthquake phenomena since it is the most reliable and easiest available data set of observations in present seismology. We consider that the internal effect of earthquake activity is physical properties of the crust and hysteresis effect of stress drop. When external effects are taken into consideration, the model is further generalized and can describe various seismic patterns. We choose two time scale of numerical stimulation. One is 30 day good for the prediction of big earthquake happened, and the other is 15 day for the prediction of background seismic activity
    Appears in Collections:[Institute of Applied Mathematics] thesis

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