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    题名: 政府預算規則與稅制的總體經濟效果;The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Budget Rules and Tax Policy
    作者: 劉冠廷;LIU, KUAN-TING
    贡献者: 經濟系國際經濟學研究所
    关键词: 公債;;多重均衡;內生成長;Public Debt;Tax;Indeterminacy;Endogenous Growth
    日期: 2017
    上传时间: 2019-07-17
    出版者: 經濟系國際經濟學研究所
    摘要: 本文建立一個內生成長模型,並且考慮稅率模型來探討在不同預算規則之下,政府課徵單一稅、累進稅或是累退稅,對經濟體穩定性以及經濟成長的影響。本文發現在平衡預算規則以及暫時性赤字預算規則之下,不論政府課徵單一稅、累進稅或是累退稅,經濟體均呈現馬鞍均衡。在永久性預算赤字規則之下,當公債增加,基本盈餘增加幅度不大時,政府課徵單一稅或是累進稅,經濟體長期而言將破產;若課徵累退稅,經濟體將出現多重均衡,因而不穩定。反之,當公債增加,基本盈餘增加幅度足夠大時,若政府課徵單一稅,經濟體呈現穩定的馬鞍均衡;若課徵累進稅,經濟體將破產;若課徵累退稅,當累退程度不大,經濟體呈現穩定的馬鞍均衡。當累退程度夠強,經濟體則呈現不穩定的多重均衡。當政府採用平衡預算規則與暫時性赤字預算規則,在長期下有相同的經濟成長率,然而當政府採用永久性赤字預算規則,其長期經濟成長率低於平衡預算規則與暫時性赤字預算規則下的經濟成長率。
    This paper establishes an endogenous growth model, and considers the tax rate model to explore the impact of government tax policies on the stability of the economy and economic growth under different budget rules. The paper finds that under the balance budget rule and the temporary deficit budget rule,regardless of government tax policies, the economy has a saddle-path equilibrium.Under the permanent deficit budget rule, if the reaction of the government to change in public debt is not strong enough, in the long-run the economy will go bankrupt when flat tax or progressive tax are applied. When the government imposes a regressive tax, the economy may display indeterminacy. If the reaction of the government to change in public debt is sufficiently large, under flat tax, the economy has a saddle-path equilibrium. By imposing a progressive tax, in the long-run the economy will go bankrupt. Under regressive tax, when the degree of regressivity is not large, the economy has a saddle-path equilibrium. When the degree of regressivity is strong enough, the economy displays indeterminacy. Adopting the balanced budget rule or the temporary deficit budget rule results in the same economic growth rate in the long-run. However, when the government adopts the permanent deficit budget rule, in the long-run economic growth rate is lower than that under the balanced budget and the temporary deficit budget rule.
    显示于类别:[經濟系國際經濟學研究所] 學位論文

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